Public Policy Polling rates the Foxx-Lassiter tilt a toss up now, which comports with everything I see and hear on the ground. Last fall PPP fairly nailed the outcome of the governor’s race — even if Tom Jensen along with every other expert wrongly opined that Bev Perdue could not possibly win metro Charlotte. That performance gives these numbers some weight and that outcome points to a key in the mayor’s race.

As Jensen notes, the new poll indicates that Anthony Foxx has a 59-30 advantage with Democrats who approve of Mayor Pat McCrory’s job performance. John Lassiter can do without those votes if he can get conservative Republicans to turn out to vote for him. Recall that those were the very folks who stayed at home in November, allowing Perdue to win Mecklenburg County. This is why Lassiter’s primary with Martin Davis is no mere formality.

If Lassiter dispatches Martin while alienating conservatives he makes things easier for Foxx. If instead Lassiter comes across as a principled, electable conservative who’ll check Foxx’s drive to turn Charlotte into a Democrat bastion, Foxx has a much tougher path to victory.

Here’s another thing that needs to get set straight. Lassiter may have more cash on hand at the moment, but he needs more cash. The other Dems on the council will pour cash into Foxx’s effort if need be and Foxx’s street-level operation will be better — or should be. Should Lassiter somehow get a 2-to-1 edge in funding, yeah, I’d pay attention to that, but anything short of that is not going to be a significant difference-maker for him.

This gonna be a close one, from all indications.

Update: Really cannot believe that John Lassiter reacted to this poll by saying he was “leading.” First off, it is not true. The result is within the margin of error and the 13 percent undecided number doubles that variable. Sometimes races really are too close to call. But second, and more importantly, Lassiter is wrong tell GOP voters that he is A-OK and in the lead. He needs to tell them that he is in a fight to the finish and keep plugging turnout.