As I suspected would happen, the Gallup poll earlier this week that showed Bush-Cheney ahead of Kerry-Edwards by 15 points in North Carolina was not treated with much respect by either party within the state. Democrats had no reason to play up a distressing result for them, while Republicans were properly skeptical of the margin (internal polls from both sides have showed the race much closer) and concerned that if they acted triumphant about a perverse ?Bush bounce? in the aftermath of the Edwards pick, that would just set them up for embarrassment when other polls were subsequently released showing a closer contest.

Indeed, that was the right tactical choice. Today a Mason-Dixon poll for NC news organizations portrays a far different picture: a three-point lead for the Republican ticket, 48 percent to 45 percent with 7 percent undecided. The news isn?t all bad for the GOP ? after all, you?d expect the selection of a home-state senator to have given the Dems a strong bounce here ? but it is much closer to the truth than the flawed Gallup data and explains why both sides are now spending money here.