The body of this Jim Morrill et al story was much more nuanced than the 30 McCrory precincts powered Foxx victory hed implied. The 30 city precincts that switched from red to blue absolutely do help explain how Anthony Foxx won. But when you put those flips in perspective, I think the bigger story remains low turnout in GOP precincts John Lassiter needed big vote totals out of in order to win.
First, consider the size of the precincts that flipped. Most were small, generating 500-600 votes total, with a couple in the 300 vote range. Second, Lassiter was competitive in all them often losing by a few dozen votes. He lost three precincts by a total of 27 votes. In the overall battle these flips were nagging flesh wounds, not mortal injuries.
Next consider turnout. Like we said the other day, Lassiter needed turnout to hit 30 percent in his core suburban precincts to win. And that kind of turnout in many precincts is absolutely what got him close to victory. In fact, of the 33 precincts with turnout higher than 30 percent, Lassiter won 32 of them, often by wide margins. Let me say that again. The only precinct Foxx carried with turnout above 30 percent was East Stonewall AME Zion with 36 percent.
Now let’s go back to Lassiter’s underperforming precincts. Charlotte Christian went Lassiter with 62 percent (408 R votes) but just 25 percent turnout. Living Saviour Lutheran, 68 percent (376 votes) on just 17 percent turnout. Providence High, 75 percent (509 votes) on 22 percent turnout. And some of the others we mentioned the other day: Providence Country Club, Hawk Ridge, Harrison United Methodist, Community House Middle, Calvary Church, McKee Road Elementary. All these and other big South Charlotte GOP precincts had turnout in the low 20s, a couple below 20 percent.
If you had to point to one thing that killed Lassiter on Election Day, I would start with those South Charlotte precincts that did not hit 30 percent.
Bonus Rain on Parade: Low turnout cuts another way. Anthony Foxx would be wise to consider that his supposed mandate to “rebuild” Charlotte comes from exactly 9.3 percent of registered voters.
