This is going to get ugly. When we last looked at the airline industry last summer, fuel prices were spiking, and the airlines were announcing major route cuts effective from Fall 2008 and extending through this year. The cutbacks by US Airways at CLT were modest, but pretty much everyone else slashed capacity here sharply.

While fuel prices are lower now, the economy has tanked, and reductions in supply have been overwhelmed by the reductions in demand for air travel. This even extends to the last bastions of airline profitability, flights to Europe and Asia. Translation: more cuts ahead, beginning in the fall.

Of particular interest will be what American and Delta/Northwest do. Between them, they have over half the non-US Airways flights from CLT. Big potential for more deep cuts here. Their current flights are:

American
DFW: 5 daily on 140-seat MD-80s
On 44 or 50-seat regional jets: MIA x 4, ORD x 4, STL x 2


Delta

ATL: 10 flights, 7 on 142-seat MD-80s, 3 on 76-seat regional jets
On 50 seat regional jets: 4 x CVG, 4 x JFK

Northwest, which is merging into Delta:
DTW: 5 mainline flights, seating 125
MSP: 4 daily flights, a mix of 125 and 100-seat DC-9s and 76 seat regional jets
MEM: 3 daily on 76-seat regional jets

Does American stay third man in to O’Hare? Does Delta keep four flights from Charlotte to Kennedy, a route on which they’re third in market share behind US Airways and jetBlue? And how many hubs does the combined Delta/Northwest keep anyway? (Cincinnati is particularly vulnerable.) And to what degree do they offer flights to here. Questions, questions.

Update: Word on the street is that American’s St. Louis flights are ending in November. This is not a surprise.