Michael Barone ponders that question in his latest Washington Examiner report:
Most unnerving for Democrats is that their nominees are currently trailing by double digits in the nation’s industrial heartland — in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Illinois. These are states Barack Obama carried with 54, 51, 57 and 62 percent of the vote.
Democrats are not supposed to be trailing there in times like these. The old political rule is that economic distress moves voters in the industrial heartland toward Democrats. Oldtimers remember that that is what happened in recession years like 1958, 1970 and 1982.
In addition, Democrats are also trailing by margins that have been growing in U.S. Senate races in Pennsylvania and Ohio and are running even at best in Illinois. They’re trailing by significant margins in the races for governor and senator in Wisconsin and Iowa, which Obama carried with 56 and 54 percent.
The industrial heartland is where Democrats hoped their economic policies — the stimulus package, the auto company bailout, the health care bill — would win over voters uneasy about their cultural liberalism.
They hoped that increased government spending would be seen as a tonic an ailing economy. Instead it seems more like poison.
Barone will join John Hood, Gary Pearce, and Marc Rotterman for the John Locke Foundation’s 2010 election preview Headliner luncheon one week from today.
