Editors at National Review Online analyze current conditions in Syria.

In a stunning turn of events, Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian regime has collapsed. As rebel groups celebrated in the streets of Damascus and tore down large posters of his face, the dictator fled the country. Rebel leaders declared Syria “free of the tyrant” and Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali called for free elections.

These were scenes few would have expected to happen so suddenly, given that the country has been in the midst of a deadlocked civil war for twelve years that grew out of the Arab Spring. It was difficult to assess that the rebels had gained such an upper hand, even when they captured its second-largest city Aleppo.

The fall of Assad marks the end not only of his leadership, but of more than 50 years of brutal rule by his family. …

… When Bashar took over in 2000, there was some initial hope that he would be more moderate, given that his reputation was of a low-key doctor who had studied ophthalmology at the Western Eye Hospital in London. But any lingering hopes of a moderate streak were dashed during the civil war, which has killed an estimated 580,000 people, with over 300,000 estimated to be non-combatants. …

… In addition to his savage rule at home, Assad became close allies to some of the worst actors on the international stage, primarily Russia and Iran. …

… At this point, it’s difficult to know what to expect. Assad was a tyrant, but those fighting Assad were not one monolithic, freedom-seeking rebel group. The rebels are a collection of lots of different rebel groups with different grievances against the regime — and this includes jihadis. Insurgent leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani formerly fought for al-Qaeda in Iraq and was designated a terrorist by the United States.

There was always a realist argument that as bad as Assad was, we have no idea what will happen without him in control, with the biggest fear being that Islamist groups could seize power in different areas of Syria and gain access to abandoned weapons. There have been reports that Israel has already taken precautionary measures. …