Daniel Cox, Kyle Gray, and Kelsey Eyre Hammond scrutinize new survey data about the American voting public.

With just under six months until the 2024 presidential election, a new survey of more than 6,500 adults finds considerable uncertainty among the American public, with few paying close attention to issues that may define the election. Americans are evenly divided between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. At this stage in the election cycle, neither candidate is particularly well-liked: Comparable numbers of Americans hold negative opinions of Trump or Biden as say they favor either candidate. Half of voters say things will get worse if either Biden or Trump wins reelection. Still, Americans tend to believe that the candidate options for the 2024 presidential election present an easy choice, though young voters, especially young women, are less certain.

Young people support Biden, but not by a huge margin. Fifty-four percent of young voters say if the election were held today, they would support Biden, and 46 percent say they would support Trump. Young men and women differ by about 12 points in their support for either candidate. A majority of religiously unaffiliated voters (69 percent), Black Protestants (88 percent), and Hispanic Catholics (55 percent) support Biden. However, Trump holds an advantage among white Catholics (58 percent), white mainline Protestants (59 percent), Latter-day Saints (69 percent), and white evangelical Protestants (83 percent).

Optimism about the state of the country is in short supply. Americans are primarily pessimistic about the national economic outlook, their local economic outlook, and the American Dream as a whole. More than six in 10 (61 percent) Americans say the national economy is worsening. Half (49 percent) say their local economy is getting worse. Most Americans, including large percentages of young Americans, say the American Dream is not easy for people like them to achieve.