Jim Geraghty of National Review Online explains why Donald Trump enjoys some advantages heading toward Election Day. (Geraghty’s follow-up column touts Kamala Harris’ advantages.)
You don’t win the presidency by winning the popular vote from coast to coast; you win the presidency by winning enough states to reach 270 electoral votes.
As CNN’s Harry Enten put it Monday: “Pretty clear that Harris is ahead nationally right now . . . and I don’t think it matters all that much. . . . Her advantage in the battlegrounds is basically nil. Average it all, Harris’ chance of winning the popular vote is 70 percent. Her chance of winning the electoral college is 50 percent.”
Some Democrats are no doubt exuberant this morning about a Morning Consult poll that has Harris ahead nationally, 51 percent to 45 percent. But when you look at the swing-state polling, it’s fair to wonder if any post-debate national-polling bump Harris is enjoying is just her running up her margins in already-won deep-blue states like New York and California.There are some people who complain about the RealClearPolitics average because it includes pollsters they don’t like and deem too friendly to Trump and Republicans, such as Rasmussen Reports. …
… The first conclusion is that none of those states appear out of reach for either candidate. We are currently on track for an election that is closer than 2016 and 2020. On its home page, RealClearPolitics offers a daily updated “this day in history,” allowing you to compare the RCP polling average on this date to the averages from four years ago and eight years ago. (You youngsters out there may be shocked to learn that Ohio and Florida used to be swing states — used to be the swing states! — and Georgia and Arizona used to be considered safe red states.) With the occasional exception, Trump and Harris are closer to each other in each swing state than Trump was to Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton in those previous cycles.
