Turns out the notion that local GOPers would actually switch parties in order to vote in the Democratic presidential primary is not just theoretical. The Uptown paper of record reports that it is actually happening. To wit:

Statewide, 25,296 registered voters switched to either Democrat or unaffiliated during the first three months of 2008. Just under 6,000 switched to Republican. In Mecklenburg County alone, 3,140 voters switched parties — 2,604 to Democrat or unaffiliated; 536 to Republican.

This would be bad news for Pat McCrory to the extent that these changes represent votes he would be likely to get in the Republican primary. The impact, however, is hard to pin down. It appears some switchers are heeding Rush Limbaugh’s “Operation Chaos” call to crossover and vote for HRC in order to prolong the Democratic contest as long as possible. (Incidentally, this is a dopey and ineffectual way to help John McCain. McCain needs to get into campaign-mode sooner rather than later, otherwise he drifts aimlessly — witness his immediate flip-flop on a mortgage bailout.)

Back to McCrory. It seems a stretch to assume that conservative Limbaugh listeners — even ones in the Charlotte area — are more likely to vote for McCrory than another candidate. So call the Operation Chaos effect a wash. But not so Republicans switching out in order to board the Obama express. Those are precisely the moderate, urban voters McCrory has been targeting.

OK, so how many votes are we talking? Good question. The Democratic presidential contest continues to swamp everything else political in North Carolina, which might have the effect of depressing GOP turnout for the primary. If so, that would amplify any switch for the sizzle effect in the governor’s race. But ultimately it is one of those things that we’ll only see and understand after the voting is done.

Update: The new Civitas poll has Not Sure out front with 44 percent, followed by McCrory at 28 and Fred Smith at 19. Interestingly, McCrory has widened his lead on Smith as he pulls exactly the same percentage of self-described “very conservative” voters — 25 percent — as Smith does. McCrory actually leads among those who ID “somewhat conservative” by a 31 to 19 tally.

So maybe Operation Chaos does hurt McCrory more, dunno.