Michael Barone‘s latest column for the Washington Examiner focuses on the reasons for Donald Trump’s appeal among potential Republican presidential primary voters.
Trump’s constituency in many ways resembles that amassed by another celebrity candidate who defied the usual political rules, Ross Perot in 1992. Like Perot, Trump runs better among whites than blacks, among men than women, among non-college graduates than college grads, in the suburbs and countryside than big cities. Like Perot, he has no special appeal to traditionally religious voters.
But there is one striking difference. In November 1992, Perot won more than 20 percent among voters under 45 but only 12 percent among those 60 and over. Younger voters, presumably less attached to parties than their elders, flocked to his side.
Trump’s appeal is strongest at the other end of the age spectrum. Recent Quinnipiac and CNN/ORC polls showed him with over 40 percent favorable ratings from voters 50 and over. But his favorable ratings among voters under 35 were only 25 and 28 percent, while 66 to 68 percent rated him unfavorably. …
… Many young people are apparently open to voting Republican — but not for Trump. For the Millennial generation, it appears, Trump is yesterday’s news.
Why should that be so? The best explanation I can come up with is that Trump’s signature issues, the issues on which he has sparked controversy — immigration and, often mentioned in the same breath, trade — are issues that have been declining in salience in recent years.
They still animate older voters, who have been paying attention for some time. But for younger voters, they’re yesterday’s news.
