Is former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney the front-runner for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination? Michael Barone devotes his latest Washington Examiner article to disputing that notion.
In the realclearpolitics.com average of recent polls Romney gets 16.6% and Mike Huckabee 16.4%. They’re followed by Donald Trump with 12.9%, Sarah Palin with 10.6%, Newt Gingrich with 7.7%, etc. In polls conducted in April and May Romney gets between 11% and 19%. The way I read it he’s a contender, not a front-runner. And not necessarily a strong contender: with greater name recognition than some other potential candidates he’s not running far ahead of them.
But wasn’t he the runner-up in the 2008 race for the Republican nomination, and don’t Republicans always nominate the candidate who was the runner-up last time? The answer to both questions is, not necessarily. Romney got more voters than any other candidate except John McCain in the 2008 Republican caucuses and primaries. But it wasn’t a close second: McCain got 42%, Romney got 21% and Mike Huckabee got 20%. And Huckabee actually got quite a lot more delegates (270) than Romney (189). So much for the idea that Romney was the clear runner-up. …
… Modest proposal: can we all agree to ban the label “front-runner” from coverage of the race for the 2012 Republican nomination, at least until someone wins enough votes and delegates to demonstrate that he or she really is the front-runner?
