Michael Barone will help the John Locke Foundation read the electoral tea leaves during a Headliner luncheon Wednesday in Raleigh. You’ll be able to hear a preview by listening to Bill LuMaye interview Barone shortly after 2 p.m. today on WPTF Radio.

It’s likely that Barone will touch on at least some of the topics he discusses in his latest Washington Examiner column:

The interesting thing is that this year’s Pledge to America concentrates more on substantive issues of governance than the Contract with America did 16 years ago.

Yes, the Pledge does include some procedural reforms (any House member can get a vote on an amendment cutting spending) as did the Contract (cutting the number of committees and committee staff).

But the Pledge to America also addresses two central economic issues and makes commitments that will embarrass House Republicans if they gain a majority but fail to deliver.

One is to roll back non-defense discretionary spending to 2008 levels. The other is to repeal — not revise or amend or embroider, but repeal — the health care bill signed by Barack Obama exactly six months before the shirt-sleeved House Republicans made their pledge.

The rollback to 2008 strikes me as good policy and politics — or at least good conservative policy and good Republican politics.

Good conservative policy because the Obama administration and Democratic congressional leaders vastly increased domestic spending in the 2009 stimulus package and the 2010 budget. With a Democratic president and Democratic supermajorities for the first time in more than 30 years, experienced and dedicated Democrats took out their wish lists and turned them into law.

In particular they increased the budget baselines for many domestic programs. Getting those baselines back down will make a significant difference not just this year but for years to come.