Barron’s D.C. man assesses the likely impact of Washington woes on the 2014 elections

Jim McTague uses his latest “D.C. Current” column in Barron’s to project the likely electoral impact of recent controversies plaguing Washington, D.C.

Gallup last week found the overall approval rate for Congress was 9% — the lowest ever recorded. The previous record low of 10% was set in 2012. A Quinnipiac University poll this month found that the voters hold the Republican members of Congress in greater contempt than they hold the Democratic members. Nevertheless, the pollsters found voters equally split when asked if they would choose a Republican or a Democrat.

Thus, as we head into the 2014 midterm election cycle, the parties are neck-in-neck in the mud. If the election were held today, the GOP would likely hold the House and come close to picking up the 10 seats it needs to control the Senate.

OBAMACARE WILL HAUNT THE DEMOCRATS into next year because it directly affects the wallets of more voters than did the government shutdown. Thirty-three states are served by the troubled federal exchanges. A Gallup poll released Thursday showed that 55% of the respondents disapproved of Obamacare, while 40% approved.

President Obama predicts that, a year from now, the program will have been debugged. Until then, however, he humbly warns about other problems and has telegraphed that he probably will need a technical-corrections bill from the Congress to iron out the wrinkles. But he hasn’t said what corrections must be made or when he might request them. His reticence is understandable. It’s difficult to ask a neighbor for help nursing your favorite pet to health when the neighbor has vowed to put the critter down.

Democrats need 17 additional seats to retake control of the House, which they lost in 2010. Seventeen additional seats might not sound like an awful lot, but it is, especially when the party has to hang on dearly to every seat it now possesses. The current party breakdown, according to the clerk of the House, is 231 Republicans and 200 Democrats.

There are about 186 “safe” Republican seats versus 159 “safe” Democratic seats. Among the remaining seats, there are not many easy pickings for either party. Seventeen Republicans represent congressional districts that broke for Obama in 2012. There are only nine Democrats serving in congressional districts that broke for Romney.