The latest Barron’s cover story features “D.C. Current” columnist Jim McTague‘s assessment of the Republicans most likely to contend for the 2016 presidential nomination.
Loath to be outdone by Fox’s winnowing, we’ve narrowed the field further, to seven we think will still be in the running for the nomination next March, after 57% of the 2,470 GOP delegates have been selected. They include Jeb Bush, a former two-term Florida governor who hasn’t campaigned since 2002, and who, we are told, will try branding himself merely as “Jeb”; former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, who had a second career on Fox News; and first-term Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, a conservative hero noted for his debating skill and his support from the conservative billionaire Koch brothers.
Also in the running are crusty two-term Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who also spent 18 years in Congress and is the most experienced candidate; first-term Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, an isolationist libertarian rerun of his father, former Rep. Ron Paul; and first-term Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, the most charismatic candidate and a brilliant campaigner, who has billionaire Miami auto dealer Norman Braman in his camp.
And last but far from least is two-term Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, whose tax cutting and confrontations with unions has made him a conservative darling and gives him special advantages in Iowa, home of the first competitive event on the GOP calendar, in January.
The rest of the field, in our opinion, is unlikely to break out nationally, despite some ardent followers. Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, the only woman candidate, has never held elective office and lost her bid for Democrat Barbara Boxer’s California Senate seat in 2010. It’s a similar story for Dr. Ben Carson, the only African-American in the contest, who is polling well, but also has never held elective office. Sen. Lindsey Graham is threatening to put boots on the ground in Iraq to fight the Islamic State, a nonstarter with much of the national electorate. And who can forget how former Texas Gov. Rick Perry made a fool of himself the last time he ran for president? …
… ALMOST ANY OF THE CANDIDATES would be a welcome palliative for the country’s anemic economy. Every one of them supports a robust free market and is opposed to burdensome regulation. Our best guess is that at the GOP convention in July, the battle will come down to Bush and dark horse Kasich, with Rubio as either ticket’s vice presidential pick.
