Jim McTague of Barron’s uses his latest column to offer readers some hints about the likelihood that political leaders will reach a deal that would help the federal government avoid the so-called fiscal cliff.
[C]losely monitor the words and behavior of the president to ascertain if he is truly engaged in the discussions. So far, it looks as if he is. If, however, Obama shifts into campaign mode, flying endlessly from state to state on Air Force One to enlist public support for his negotiating positions, then he will not be behaving seriously, and we may be headed off the cliff. As a Republican Capitol Hill insider puts it, the voters in Iowa won’t be casting ballots for a fiscal-cliff compromise; members of Congress will be casting the nays and ayes. Obama must stay in the White House and court those who actually will vote on a deal, not their constituents.
… [P]ay close attention to House Speaker John Boehner. He is in a stronger position within his party than he was prior to the presidential election because voters clearly sent a message that they want elected officials to compromise on major issues, not engage in endless gridlock. Boehner single-handedly almost consummated a “grand” budget deal with Obama in July 2011, but presidential electioneering by both parties scuttled an agreement. No one in the GOP knows how to bargain with Obama better than the Ohio Republican. If he appears negative, then run for cover. And also watch if Boehner meets one-on-one with Obama, as he did back in 2011, when they came oh so close, suggests Ken Kies, a director at the Federal Policy Group, a top lobbying firm with special expertise in taxation. This will be a sign that the president is very serious about closing a bipartisan deal.
… WATCH REPUBLICAN SEN. Mitch McConnell, the Senate minority leader and a fiscal conservative from Kentucky. Like Boehner and Obama, McConnell is key. Obama needs Republican Senate votes if an agreement is to become a reality, and McConnell, who is known as a very cautious lawmaker, is the only one who can deliver them. McConnell stands ready to leave his comfort zone and agree to an increase in federal revenue, but only if Obama agrees in return to leave his own comfort zone and cut taxes and entitlements like Social Security and Medicare. If McConnell bridles, trouble lies ahead.
