Reading between the lines of the open house, I’d say CATS knows the score on the Southeast (Independence) transit line. First off, forget the CPCC station across 485; it’ll never happen, at least not anytime soon. It is simply too expensive to get there. The more interesting question is whether the line will go into Matthews at all.

CATS sees the logic in building a big park-n-ride lot at North Sardis and 74, adjacent to the abandoned K-Mart hulk. In fact that station is now described as the terminus for the “first phase” of the project with a new parking deck added there. And it is the next three stations that veer off the 74 median and onto new right of way in Matthews. But CATS officials made it clear that it’ll be up to the town of Matthews to secure funding for needed improvements and expansion of Independence Pointe Parkway, which will have to absorb the local traffic driven off of 74 as the highway becomes limited access.

CATS also has come to grips with the fact that a kiss-and-ride lot at the Matthews Festival shopping center made no sense and deleted it, which would also seem to reflect a downward adjustment in ridership expectations there at Hwy 51. In sum, it is very easy to imagine that the line would stop at North Sardis for some period of time until the other needed road improvements are made further down the proposed line. We shall see.

Of course, the big driving factor will be cost and what the feds will pay toward that cost. This is where the bus vs. rail thing comes in. CATS is still showing both options, but it is hard to see how rail could possibly be cost-effective given its higher cost to build. Yes, the town of Matthews and East Charlotte officials want rail, but unless they find a sack of money in McAlpine Creek, it ain’t gonna happen.

CATS is also showing an option for an added HOV lane down 74. This brings us to the elephant in this corridor: Commerical traffic. Independence has always carried a huge volume of commerical and truck traffic that is simply not going to be impacted by mass transit or HOV options. Besides, HOV lanes are so 1970s. Much better to assume they will be high-occupancy toll (HOT) lanes if we really want to add capacity and reduce congestion.

There are also big questions about the design of the Conference Drive station, which must live with and actually improve both East Meck and a public library to make a lick of sense. This is rendered difficult by a large apartment complex, precisely the kind of high-density development mass transit needs after completion, but which complicates the building process. And here, again, the issue of improvements to adjacent roads rears up. School buses and local traffic have to be able to make in up and down Monroe Rd., simple as that.

So now we wait. The cost estimates for the project will finally begin to ground this thing in reality. Or not.