Naomi Lim of the Washington Examiner dissects the electoral map for the two major-party presidential contenders.
The 2024 election may be a rematch, but President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump’s paths to 270 electoral votes and the presidency may not be the same this time around.
That’s because the 202 Census has tinkered with the Electoral College map and the campaigns’ electoral math, with Nebraska, typically a flyover state, tipped to be more important to Biden and Trump this November.
If the 2020 election were rerun today, Biden would win 303 electoral votes to Trump’s 235, or three fewer votes compared to four years ago, according to Sabato’s Crystal Ball managing editor Kyle Kondik. Similarly, if the 2024 results are the same as 2016, Trump would receive 306 votes to then-Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s 232, or two more than the upset victory that vaulted Trump to the White House.
That’s because California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, and Pennsylvania — states Biden won in 2020 —lost one vote each after the Census, with Colorado and Oregon gaining votes, for a net loss of three votes. Simultaneously, Trump’s states of Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Texas gained five votes, though Ohio and West Virginia lost two, for a net gain of three.
Trump currently has the polling edge in critical battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin which more than secure his political comeback. Not satisfied, friendly Nebraska Republicans have speculated that they could change the state’s election laws to no longer divide three of its electoral votes by its congressional districts. Historically, Republican presidential candidates have won Nebraska’s two statewide and two rural congressional district votes, with Democrats receiving Omaha’s counterpart.
With Trump poised to lock in 235 votes of the 270 needed under the new electoral map with reliably red states, that Omaha vote becomes more important if he wins Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. That’s because the former president would have 268 votes, according to University of Texas, Austin government professor Daron Shaw.
