by Mitch Kokai
Senior Political Analyst, John Locke Foundation
If an election were held today, a substantial number of those who voted President Joe Biden in November wouldn’t do so now, a new I&I/TIPP Poll shows. This comes after a spate of recent polls from TIPP and others suggesting Biden’s political support is in a freefall as Americans question his leadership on issues ranging from COVID-19 to the chaos on the U.S.’ southern border to the recent botched withdrawal from Afghanistan.
The I&I/TIPP Poll asked Americans: “If the presidential election were held today, and the following were the candidates, for whom would you vote?”
Respondents were given the following choices: “Donald Trump, the Republican,” “Joe Biden, the Democrat,” “Other,” “Not sure,” and “Prefer not to answer.”
Just 46% of those who voted in the November 2020 election said they’d vote for Biden today, more than five full percentage points below his official total 51.3% share in the 2020 presidential election. That doesn’t mean voters are wishing they’d instead picked Trump, who in recent weeks has hinted at a possible re-run in 2024. The poll found 42% said they’d pick Trump now, down from his actual 2020 election total of 46.9%.
Some 7% of those responding said they would vote for someone “other” than the two candidates, while 4% said they were unsure whom they would vote for. …
… Also interesting is where Biden lost the most support – among women, suburbanites, moderates, and the middle-class. In other words, the key groups that helped put him in the White House.
The poll found that only 49% of women said they’d vote for Biden today, down from 57% who said they did so in November. Among suburbanites, 41% would vote for Biden now, down from 48% who’d actually cast their ballot for him.
Biden’s support among moderates went from 56% to 47%. Among those making between $50,000 and $75,000, it fell from 54% to 44%.