The American Politics Research journal recently published a fascinating article, “What Made Carolina Blue? In-Migration and the 2008 North Carolina Presidential Vote” by professors M.V. Hood III (UGA)* and Seth C. McKee (USF).
Hood and McKee concluded,
There is no question that the rise in participation exhibited a strong Democratic bias that enabled Obama to squeak out a victory in a state that the GOP owned for more than 30 years. As we have shown in this study, the changing face of the Tar Heel electorate directly contributed to North Carolina going blue in the 2008 presidential election. Nonetheless, we would not be surprised if the state returns to the Republican column in 2012. Our claim is not that North Carolina is now a Democratic state in presidential politics, but rather because of population change through a continuing and substantial influx of migrants born outside the South, these voters are pushing the state in a competitive direction?essentially making it a swing state, or to stick with the color-coded language, we contend that North Carolina has become a purple state in presidential elections.
The researchers used two data sources: North Carolina’s voter registration database and a pre-election poll conducted by Public Policy Polling. Both supported the in-migration thesis.
* To my knowledge, Dr. M.V. Hood III is not directly related to John Hood.
