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Weekly John Locke Foundation research division newsletter focusing on environmental issues.

This newsletter highlights relevant analysis done by the JLF and other think tanks as well as items in the news.

1. British and international press report on analysis predicting little ice age — US Press? Not so much.

A leading British scientist is arguing that the earth is on the verge of plunging into a little ice age due to an exceptionally inactive sun. The story is being reported on BBC Weather   and on BBC TV (video only available in Great Britain.) The story is also being reported here,here, and here.

Solar scientists are predicting a significant chance of what is called a Maunder solar minimum, which essentially means an exceptionally inactive sun. Sun activity has been declining for several decades (see graph published in The Irish Times). The British scientist whose statements are gaining attention is Professor Mike Lockwood from Reading University. According to BBC Weather, Professor Lockwood "believes that we are already beginning to see a change in our climate – witness the colder winters and poor summers of recent years – and that over the next few decades there could be a slide to a new Maunder minimum…harsh winters and unsettled summers would become more frequent."

Other scientists are also noting the diminished solar activity, although they don’t all agree on what it means. According to The Irish Times:

Three leading solar scientists presented the very latest data about the weakening solar activity at a teleconference yesterday in Boulder, Colorado, organised by the American Astronomical Society. It featured experts from Nasa, the High Altitude Observatory and the National Solar Observatory who described how solar activity, as measured by the formation of sunspots and by massive explosions on the sun’s surface, has been falling steadily since the mid-1940s…"It is the smallest solar maximum we have seen in 100 years," said Dr David Hathaway of Nasa.

The article goes on to quote "solar science specialist Dr. Ian Elliot" of Ireland as saying "It all points to perhaps another little ice age…It seems likely we are going to enter a period of very low solar activity and could mean we are in for very cold winters."

If you think that the Obama administration will consider any of this before moving forward with dramatic new regulations on CO2 emissions, which promise to kill the US coal industry, drive up electricity costs, and further dampen economic growth and job creation, don’t hold your breath. Although, since exhaling puts out CO2, you just might have to.

For those interested in this issue, the John Locke Foundation’s Shaftesbury Society meeting on November 18th will feature Dr. Nicola Scafetta, Duke University physicist and widely published expert on solar intensity and climate.

2. 2013 Ozone Report — Down to the wire.

Today is the last day of the official ozone season, as designated by the Environmental Protection Agency. The 2013 ozone season began on April 1 and ends today, October 31. During the latest period, from October 21-27, there were, once again, no high-ozone (smog) days recorded. For the state as a whole, there has been only one high ozone day registered on one monitor in 2013. This monitor was in Forsyth County and barely crossed the threshold of 76 parts per billion set by the EPA. Clearly there have been no high smog readings since October 27, meaning that 2013 will go down as the best year on record for the state of North Carolina.

As I note every week, all reported data is preliminary and issued by the North Carolina Division of Air Quality, which is part of the state’s Department of Environment and Natural Resources. The table below shows all of North Carolina’s ozone monitors and the number of high ozone days for the week and the year to date.

Click here for the Environment Update archive.