Several analysts are now suggesting that it’s possible that Democrats could retake the U.S. House of Representatives, where Republicans currently hold a 30-seat advantage, in November. Not so fast says David Dayen of the New Republic:
But before liberals get too excited, a reality check may be in order: To take advantage of the Republicans’ terrible choice at the top of the ticket, Democrats would have to actually run candidates for the House who can win. A lot of them. And after two historic wipeouts in recent midterms, combined with a thin bench of state legislators who can move up and a learned helplessness about redistricting that assumes many seats off the table before elections even begin, Democrats may not be well-positioned for sudden viability in a sufficient number of House races.
Even experts who give Democrats a chance to flip the House recognize that everything would have to go perfectly. [David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report] notes in his report that, despite the recent alterations, he rates only 31 Republican seats at risk of a loss. (Daily Kos Elections puts it a bit higher, with 36 Republican seats potentially threatened.) This means Democrats would have to win virtually every seat in play, and lose none of their own, just to regain a bare majority.
And:
Democrats aren’t always primed to win. Daily Kos Elections’ David Nir looked at two winnable Republican seats in southern New Jersey, where antipathy to Trump could produce unexpected results. In the 2nd district (D+1), Representative Frank LoBiondo will likely face a Democratic challenger who raised only $55,000 when he was on the ballot in 2014, losing his primary by 64 points. In the 3rd district (R+1), freshman Representative Tom McArthur will compete against one of two Democrats: perennial losing candidate Frederick LaVergne, or Jim Keady, who got pummeled in a state legislative race last year.
Other races have similarly weak candidates. The Democrat in Florida’s toss-up 7th district (R+2), Bill Phillips, has less than $20,000 in his campaign account, nowhere near enough to mount a serious race. In two California races, the 21st (D+2) and 25th (R+3) districts, locally supported candidates Daniel Parra and Lou Vince have raised so few funds that national Democrats sent “carpetbaggers” from outside the district into the primaries, leading to anger from local activists.
