So Anthony Foxx isn’t running for reelection as mayor of Charlotte. I can’t say I find that particularly surprising. The job has done all that it’s going to do for his resume.

But who will be Foxx’s replacement? Filing doesn’t start until July, so we’ll have to wait awhile to be certain about who all the candidates will be. And open seats certainly can attract politically ambitious politicians like honey draws bears.

I see two main themes around which the mayor and city council electiosn can revolve: As a referendum on what should be in city’s capital budget and/or a referendum on whether city council has done a good job more broadly running the city. Republicans candidates are likely to adopt competence as a core message, pointing out that the existing council has (for example) literally promised the Panthers more than they can deliver and has made the city look very bad in the process.

The more interesting question is how Democrats perceive the issue. Will any well-known Democrats not currently on council decide to enter the race? And if they do, will they go so far as to criticize any Democrats running for mayor that are currently on council for recent city problems? Or will the Democratic race for mayor and council just be about whether the city should continue building the street car now and how it should pay for it? Or put another way, do the city’s recent problems have any legs in Democratic precincts?