John J. Miller of National Review, who will participate in the Locke Foundation’s election preview luncheon on Oct. 4, today rates the North Carolina Senate race between Erskine Bowles and Richard Burr a “toss up.” This despite repeated polls that show Bowles with roughly a 10 percentage point lead.

As for the race in our neighboring state to the South, Miller writes:

Democratic nominee Inez Tenenbaum is trying to make a major issue of Republican congressman Jim DeMint’s support for a bold tax reform that would come in the shape of a national sales tax. “It’s not a mainstream idea,” says Tenenbaum. DeMint is sticking to his guns, calling the current tax code a job killer. And it doesn’t seem to be hurting DeMint at all, based on his own polls, which show him holding a healthy lead over Tenenbaum, 50 percent to 38 percent.

Miller rates the South Carolina race as “leaning (toward a) Republican takeover.” As for the overall makeup of the Senate, on Aug. 31, 2004, he is predicting a two-seat gain for the GOP.