Look closely at the graph below showing cigarette usage and taxes in Washington State. Some would have you believe that the higher cigarette taxes are leading people to stop smoking.

Really?

The downward-sloping line starts in 1997, as does the tax collections line on the bottom right. The column chart starts in 1981. The relevant part are the rightmost three steps. The tax reached $0.80 per pack in 1996, $1.425 in 2002, and $2.025 in 2006.

The amount of revenue shoots up in 2002 and 2006, but cigarette consumption doesn’t respond much. The fall in consumption from 2002 to 2003 was 7.8 percent, less than the 8.1 percent decline from 1999 to 2000. Looking at three-year trends, the consumption fell 4.4 percent from 1997 to 1999, 8.9 percent from 2000 to 2002, but only 1.6 percent from 2003 to 2005.

Cigarette taxes raise money from smokers. If they were as effective as proponents say at keeping people from smoking, proponents would look for a new way to get revenue.