If you think experts hold a clear view of how the coronavirus scare will affect the American economy, you ought to read Lisa Beilfuss’ column in the latest Barron’s.

This coronavirus is novel not only for its first appearance in humans, but also for the impact it stands to have on the world economy. The threat is unprecedented and the ultimate toll uncertain.

The unfolding calamity is at turns similar to the financial crisis, marked by market dislocation; the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, which affected consumer behavior; and adverse weather events like the polar vortex in 2019 that kept swaths of people home-bound and visibly dented economic growth.

Predicting the impact has been a real bear (pardon the reference). …

… Economists, racing to keep up with developments and adjust their models, are split on whether the shock pushes the U.S. economy into recession. In The Wall Street Journal’s latest poll of economists, conducted on March 6-10, 49% said they see a recession in the next year, up from 26% a month ago. …

… Reflecting the wide variance in GDP predictions, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is forecasting 1.1% second-quarter growth with its real-time Nowcast as of Friday.

Some of the market panic seems to be rooted in fears that the U.S. will impose quarantines and virtual shut-downs as in China and Italy. But while certain municipalities are taking steps to limit contagion, capping crowds at 250 is a far cry from the lockdowns China and Italy have enforced. And given the political realities in the U.S. (it’s an election year), any national shutdown seems unlikely. …

… Another bit of perspective: Half of the economists in the WSJ survey are still not predicting a recession. Nancy Lazar at Cornerstone Macro is one of them, and she and her team say their own Recession Risk Index is actually moving lower, not higher.