- The belief that North Carolina’s electricity-based CO2 emissions are still going up is wrong; they’ve been cut by more than half (52 percent) since 2005
- Also wrong is the notion that North Carolina could positively impact the world’s climate by cutting its remaining, globally miniscule emissions
- For no possible climate benefit, policymakers could make North Carolinians materially worse off by trying to force the elimination of the state’s remaining emissions
In 2019, in the name of “fighting climate change,” Gov. Roy Cooper put forth his “Clean Energy Plan,” seeking to commit the state to a “70% reduction in power sector greenhouse gas emissions below 2005 levels by 2030 with carbon neutrality by 2050.” Cooper’s plan relied on input from 164 environmentalist and other “stakeholder” groups, who openly admitted that they didn’t consider the two foundational values of “affordability” and “efficiency” as “values to prioritize going forward” in electricity provision.
Source: North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality, “North Carolina Clean Energy Plan” draft report
In 2021, the General Assembly passed House Bill (HB) 951, putting those goals into law. Unlike the governor, legislators included specific provisions to protect affordability and grid reliability. Nevertheless, those can go only so far given that the law requires closing working power plants and building many new ones and that they also depend upon how strictly the North Carolina Utilities Commission and the legislature overseeing it uphold them. For those reasons, “Only Pay for What You Get” legislation is crucial for protecting ratepayers and service.
The law and the governor’s plan both presumed that reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from electricity could happen only by government fiat. This presumption was — and still is — powered by the popular and media-driven misconception that electricity emissions in North Carolina and the United States are still going up. They most definitely are not.
Data released in November by the U.S. Energy Information Administration show that North Carolina’s emissions from electricity continue to fall — yes, fall — as they have been doing all century long. They have declined significantly, now by more than half.
North Carolina’s Electricity-Based CO2 Emissions, 2000–2023 (Million Metric Tons)
The Path Not Taken
The latest report from the John Locke Foundation’s Center for Food, Power, and Life charts two paths toward emissions reduction in electricity in North Carolina: a Renewable Scenario (featuring the intermittent, unreliable resources of solar and wind that Cooper prefers) and a Nuclear Scenario (featuring nuclear, the most efficient resource and the only zero-emissions electricity resource capable of baseload power).
Two other paths had faced North Carolina’s electricity policy before the General Assembly enacted HB 951. Those paths were (a) to continue upholding state law requiring “adequate, efficient and reasonable service” or (b) to intervene in electricity provision and require artificial limits on emissions to determine utility sources of power generation. The legislature and governor chose the path of intervention.
Nevertheless, North Carolina’s CO2 emissions have declined by more than half — 52 percent — since 2005 without such intervention. So how necessary was that policy choice?
North Carolina’s Electricity-Based CO2 Emissions Fell by 52 Percent from 2005 to 223 (Million Metric Tons)
Unfortunately, many highly expensive policies are being foisted upon people out of the misconception that our emissions are rising and that we are somehow “killing the planet.” People don’t see that our emissions are falling nor that the actual science of emissions upon which all of this is based is Unsettled. That is the title of the in-depth book from Pres. Barack Obama’s Undersecretary for Science in the U.S. Department of Energy, Dr. Steven E. Koonin. (The book’s subtitle is “What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn’t, and Why It Matters.”)
Even if matters were as settled as politicians, the media, and activists declare, North Carolina’s emissions are falling, not rising. So why are we being punished by expensive policies intended to force what is happening already?
It’s a question not just for North Carolinians. All Americans need to ask it as well.
The U.S. Has Cut the Most Emissions in the World — But Most of the World Keeps Increasing Theirs
The U.S. has cut more electricity-based CO2 emissions since 2005 (a benchmark year from the Paris Agreement) than any other country in the world. North Carolina’s decline is part of a national trend. It’s a trend that is deliberately ignored in media and politics, to the detriment of public policy and even — given the modern ailment of “climate anxiety” — public health.
Since 2005, electricity-based CO2 emissions in the United States have fallen by 1,234.14 million metric tons, per the 2024 Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy. Most other places in the world have continued to add to their stock of emissions since 2005:
- South and Central America: +285.80 million tons
- Africa: +399.64 million tons
- The Middle East: +917.37 million tons
- India: +1,611.09 million tons
- China: +5,139.12 million tons
Changes in CO2 Emissions from Energy Around the World, 2005–2023 (in Million Metric Tons)
Despite significant reductions made in the U.S., India alone has more than erased them. China, however, has added more than four times the amount of electricity-based CO2 emissions that the U.S. has cut. China has added 5,139.12 million metric tons of CO2 emissions while the U.S. has cut 1,234.14 million metric tons.
Conclusion
Even as North Carolina’s electricity-based CO2 emissions have been going down all this century without the need for policy interventions, the simple fact of the matter is that even if they were eliminated entirely, they are too miniscule for their absence to make a difference. North Carolina cannot affect the world’s climate outcomes. North Carolina policies cannot affect the world’s climate outcomes.
Nevertheless, North Carolina policies significantly affect North Carolinians. Policymakers will make North Carolinians much worse off by trying to foist expensive and unreliable energy resources on them.
Unfortunately, North Carolinians can be made to pay a terrible price while making no perceptible difference in the world’s climate. Responsible policymaking would weigh the costs and benefits of climate dictates accordingly.
