Political consultant Keith Naughton shares with Daily Caller readers his argument against the notion of a “blue wave” election.

Just a few months ago Democrats envisioned a “Blue Wave,” gaining 40-50 seats. Today their expectation have been tempered – and for good reason. Since 1946, Democrats have gained an average of 21 seats in the midterms when the president is a Republican. That gain would not be enough for a majority, where the Democrats need to gain 25 seats.

Using election data since 1946, on average the president’s party (Republican or Democratic) loses 21 seats in the first midterm election. But that average masks big swings, from a 63-seat loss in 2010 to an 8-seat gain in 2002. The median loss is just 15 seats. The current partisan makeup is 236-193 with 6 vacancies. RealClearPolitics puts Republicans as favorites in 202 seats, Democrats in 199 seats with 24 tossups.

One thing is for certain, the president’s party struggles in midterm elections because that’s how politics works. Presidents get elected by making a lot of promises to get elected. The result? The president’s voters can never be fully satisfied less than two years into a given presidency. Some of those voters drop out, while the opposition becomes united, not in policy preferences, but just in opposition to the president they didn’t vote for.