Civitas has the numbers on state Sen. Bill Purcell’s re-election bid:

Democratic incumbent Bill Purcell is ahead in the state Senate District 25 race against Republican opponent Jason Phibbs according to a new SurveyUSA poll released today by the Civitas Institute.

According to the poll of 350 registered voters in that district, which is made up of Anson, Richmond, Scotland, and Stanly counties, 48 percent of voters said that if the election for state Senate were held today they would vote for Purcell. Forty percent said they would vote for Phibbs and 12 percent said they are undecided.

This gap narrows, however, to a two-point margin of 46 percent Democratic-44 percent Republican when voters are asked which candidate for state legislature they will vote for this fall. Further analysis reveals that Independent voters are trending Republican, as 57 percent said they will vote for the Republican candidate.

?This district slightly leans Democratic, but was carried by John McCain in the Presidential race in 2008 and could become competitive as voters are leaning Republican across much of the state,? said Civitas Institute Senior Legislative Analyst Chris Hayes.