I was planning to write a story for Carolina Journal on the impact of the Democrats’ gubernatorial primary on the marriage amendment referendum. A number of media outlets beat me to the punch, so there isn’t much new to report.
But there are several observations worth making here. One, the Democrats’ primary will certainly drive more liberal voters to the polls May 8. Primaries tend to bring out the most extreme (or ideologically devoted, depending on your perspective) elements of both parties. In this case, score one for opponents of the amendment.
Two, if an African-American candidate — such as Charlotte mayor Anthony Foxx — is a front-runner, or close to, that could drive a large black turnout. Polling shows that a firm majority of blacks support traditional marriage and would vote for the amendment. In that scenario, score one for supporters of the amendment.
Third, turnout among Republicans could be bolstered if the GOP presidential primary is still going at full steam. It’s safe to assume that won’t happen. Even if Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich Rick Santorum continue to battle a month from now — into late February — that’s still over two months away from North Carolina’s primary. My sense is that Romney will have it wrapped up well before then. So supporters of the amendment can’t count on a presidential primary driving turnout.
Foes of the amendment believe the Democratic primary is a game changer. It’s not. It’s made the ballot referendum more competitive, but not enough to sink it, particularly in a state where even many Democrats oppose same-sex marriage.
