by Mitch Kokai
Senior Political Analyst, John Locke Foundation
Democrats, including Joe Biden, are trying not to jinx themselves as the political tide seems to turn against President Trump.
“Ignore the polls. We can’t take anything for granted this November — the stakes are simply too high,” Biden tweeted last week.
Biden’s plea was prompted by surveys reporting he’s got a double-digit berth nationally on Trump four or so months out from the general election. Public opinion averages across the country and in critical swing states suggest it’s a tighter race. But the presumptive 2020 Democratic presidential nominee’s still charging ahead in battlegrounds such as Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin. And FiveThirtyEight data this week has Biden winning in states worth 368 electoral votes, compared to Trump’s 170.
Trump’s ebbing political fortunes come as both candidates relaunch their bids following the COVID-19 lockdowns. The White House incumbent, who hosted a massive rally Saturday, returns more battered than his opponent, who’s been holding smaller-scale events. Critics have pummeled Trump for his coronavirus response and its effect on the economy since the start of the year. The president’s also been hit for his reaction to the civil unrest triggered after George Floyd, a black man, died last month as a white police officer knelt on his neck.
To add insult to injury, former Trump national security adviser John Bolton this week is conducting a media blitz pushing excerpts from his explosive new memoir. …
… Against the backdrop of these blows, Biden’s numbers auger well for the former two-term vice president and 36-year Delaware senator, according to David Axelrod, former President Barack Obama’s chief campaign strategist.
“In new Fox News poll, @realDonaldTrump is down 12. He trails among suburban voters by 22 points. He won them by 5 in ‘16. He trails among Indys by 22. He won them by 4 in ‘16.” …