• From the War on Women to the War on Highways? The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is out with a new ad, attacking Republican Senate nominee Thom Tillis for supporting toll roads.

• Meantime, the independent Faith Family Freedom Fund is out with an ad attacking incumbent Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan for supporting tax-funded abortions as part of Obamacare.

• An NBC News/Marist poll released Sunday shows the U.S. Senate race between Tillis and Hagan tied among likely voters at 43 percent each. Libertarian Sean Haugh gets 7 percent. Hagan led last month, 44-40. Of interest, Tillis leads Hagan by 11 points among self-described independents and President Obama’s approval rating is 37 percent.

• Sean Trende, the poll-watcher with the perfect name, does a statistical analysis of the polling averages of all U.S. Senate races since 1998 based on the number of days before the election and finds (as of Thursday) that Hagan has a 70-percent chance of winning, but even if Tillis loses, Republicans still are on track to gaing between six and eight Senate seats, putting the GOP either tied or in the majority.

• The Obama effect continues to serve as a drag on Democrats across the country, Politico reports, with Tom Jensen of the Raleigh-based Democratic firm Public Policy Polling saying the president’s unpopularity may be “the biggest factor in this election,” and that it “may be too much for a lot of the Democratic Senate candidates to overcome.”

• Reminder: Early voting is under way! Find a location and hours here.