by Mitch Kokai
Senior Political Analyst, John Locke Foundation
Michael Bloomberg’s campaign has been more successful than many thought possible when he jumped into the Democratic primary very late in the process. What could have been a laughingstock is now merely a longshot.
He is now effectively tied for third place in the latest Morning Consult poll of states that will vote on Super Tuesday (March 3). …
… So the Bloomberg candidacy is not farcical. But if the former New York mayor’s primary rationale for running is stopping a far-left Democrat from winning the nomination, the continuation of his candidacy does look a little bit crazy. …
… With five days to go until the caucuses, Sanders now has a 38 percent chance and Joe Biden has a 36 percent chance of winning the most votes in Iowa, according to the FiveThirtyEight model.
Wouldn’t a cold-eyed businessman solely interested in keeping Sanders from winning the nomination look at this data, drop out, and endorse Biden? Wouldn’t the data-driven play be to throw a few million bucks into Iowa for Biden — a tiny fraction of what Bloomberg has spent on his own campaign — in order to stop Sanders?
That move wouldn’t guarantee a Sanders defeat, but it seems like a much more likely way to stop him than some last-ditch #NeverBernie campaign waged by a billionaire who is not allowed on stage at Democratic debates because of DNC debate qualification rules requiring a large number of small donors.