Past is prologue. Back in 2008 the Hoodmaster General was doubting Barack Obama’s appeal to North Carolina voters while all I saw was the energy Obama pumped into his supporters — energy the GOP could not match. Now, 2012. Hood:
If energy prices, food prices, and jobless rates remain high, the president will be unpopular among the state’s swing voters. Unless the Republicans nominate a horrible candidate –there are a couple in the current field, make no mistake – Obama won’t repeat his Carolina coup.
See the problem with pinning elections on swing voters is that they are swing voters. I understand why pollsters and consultants focus on them, they are bonus votes — both adding to your total and taking votes away from the other guy. But when elections are heavy with passion, turning out your base is at least as important.
Hood does not mention what will be one of the single greatest drivers of turnout for Obama in the state: the convention in Charlotte. Mere proximity to the Annointed One will electrify Obama’s core supporters around the state. Does that guarantee him victory? Of course not, but it will help him, particularly in the state’s urban cores.
On issues, when the Republican nominee — assuming he or she is not horrible, which is no more than a 50-50 deal if you are remotely honest about it — tries to paint Obama as beyond the pale, the better to round up those moderate swing votes, the President has easy local rejoinders. Yes, I am pro-bailout — just like Richard Burr and Sue Myrick. Yes, I am pro-crazed federal spending on trains — just like your Republican General Assembly and your GOP nominee for governor. Plus I am pro-protectionism, just like many of you.
On atmospherics, remember that many of the Southern white votes Obama received in 2008 particularly from younger voters were affinity votes. They were not issue-based and only look like swing votes. These voters do not want to “feel” Republican — particularly if Republican means three-piece suit and campaign sermons. Or worse — gun racks and NASCAR.
Disappointed as they might be in Obama’s first-term performance it will not be easy for them to embrace a GOP candidate. Team Obama will hone in on this emotional confusion with something (metaphorically) very close to “So, you hired a black man. And now you are gonna fire him? Over the price of gas? Are you sure you’re not just another cracker-ass cracker like all these other ‘necks?”
Bank on it.
Bottomline, I think that Obama’s re-election will turn more on passion than on pocket-books or position papers. Could be wrong about that. But I am fairly certain that given our demographics whomever carries North Carolina will be the next president.
