Rich Lowry at National Review Online disputes the notion that China will emerge as an alternative to the United States for global leadership.
Ever since Donald Trump’s election, it has been a journalistic trope to speculate that China is about to take the lead on globalization, climate change and international diplomacy. …
… Knowing his audience, President Xi Jinping has stoked this tripe by mouthing all the right cliches in front of the right audiences. He gave a speech at Davos heavy on the theme of openness and promised to help lead globalization. “Any attempt to cut off the flow of capital, technologies, products, industries, and people between economies,” Xi said, summoning his best Thomas Friedman, “is simply not possible.”
Somehow, China manages the impossible nonetheless. When it comes to information (which Xi omitted from his litany), China cuts itself off from the rest of the world quite adeptly. According to the pro-democracy group Freedom House, China ranks last in the world in internet freedom, behind Iran and Syria. It blocks Google, YouTube, Facebook, and Twitter, and jails people for spreading rumors online, i.e., criticizing government officials.
How about the free flow of capital? China has tight rules against capital outflows. Technology? China is an expert at stealing it, especially from foreign companies operating in China. Products? Despite its membership in the World Trade Organization, China is robustly mercantilist. Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations points out that imported manufactures as a share of the Chinese economy peaked in 2003 and have been falling since. As a practical matter, what Xi calls “win-win cooperation” is the rest of the world opening its markets to China while China refuses to reciprocate.
