Here is a great interview in The New York Times (requires registration) with Yale professor of economics Ray C. Fair, who uses econometrics to forecast presidential elections “with relative accuracy.” My compliments to the professor for handling with aplomb the increasingly argumentative questions from Times reporter Deborah Solomon, who was obviously perturbed by his equation’s prediction of Bush getting 57.5 percent of the vote.

Some snippets:

——————————
But the country hasn’t been this polarized since the 60’s, and voters seem genuinely engaged by social issues like gay marriage and the overall question of a more just society.

We throw all those into what we call the error term. In the past, all that stuff that you think should count averages about 2.5 percent, and that is pretty small.

It saddens me that you teach this to students at Yale, who could be thinking about society in complex and meaningful ways.

I will be teaching econometrics next year to undergraduates. Econometrics is a huge deal, because it is applied to all kinds of things.
——————————

——————————
Are you a Republican?

I can’t credibly answer that question. Using game theory in economics, you are not going to believe me when I tell you my political affiliation because I know that you know that I could be behaving strategically. If I tell you I am a Kerry supporter, how do you know that I am not lying or behaving strategically to try to put more weight on the predictions and help the Republicans?

I don’t want to do game theory. I just want to know if you are a Kerry supporter.

Backing away from game theory, which is kind of cute, I am a Kerry supporter.

I believe you entirely, although I’m a little surprised, because your predictions implicitly lend support to Bush.

I am not attempting to be an advocate for one party or another. I am attempting to be a social scientist trying to explain voting behavior.
——————————

(Aside: Isn’t that akin to what reporting is supposed to do, too?)

——————————
Perhaps you could create an equation that would calculate how important the forecasts of economists are.

There are so many polls and predictions, and I am not sure the net effect of any one of them is much.

Yes, everyone in America is a forecaster. We all think we know how things will turn out.

So in that case, no one has much influence, including me.
——————————