The economic numbers don’t look good for President Obama as he assesses his re-election chances. The demographic numbers look much better, Republican consultant Mike Murphy warns in the latest TIME:
The real ace up Obama’s sleeve in 2012? Changing demographics. As I wrote in this space two years ago, Republicans need to learn that we no longer hold our presidential elections in Ronald Reagan’s America. Here are the numbers: in 1980, white voters cast 88% of the total presidential vote; by 2008, the percentage had shrunk to 74%. Which is why, though George W. Bush in 2000 and John McCain in 2008 both won 55% of the white vote, McCain lost by 7 points and Bush essentially tied Al Gore. Worse for the GOP, the proportion of overall votes cast by white voters will decline even more in 2012.
Latinos are rapidly redrawing the demographic playing field. In 2008, Obama won the Latino vote by 36 points. His massive fundraising machine is preparing to spend millions registering even more Latinos to vote. This will have a powerful impact in the vital Western swing states of Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona, all of which have rapidly growing Latino populations. Obama carried three of these states in 2008, losing only McCain’s Arizona. The crucial question next year is, Will a poor economy trim Obama’s huge margin with these Latino voters? If not, the West may be bleak for Republicans.
