Introduction
Because electricity is a basic human need, North Carolina law has long required least-cost, reliable electricity at the flip of a switch. It’s what people expect, and true public servants see a clear duty to uphold those expectations.
Special interests and their allied politicians, however, see things differently. They see easy pickings. Every person, family, business, and school in this state needs electricity, and they all have to buy from a monopoly provider at whatever price they’re given.
In 2019, with the input from 166 environmentalist and other “stakeholder” groups, Gov. Roy Cooper announced a “Clean Energy Plan” that heavily promoted unreliable renewable energy sources, opposed natural gas, and rejected nuclear power. If implemented, it would have increased average household electric bills by more than $400 annually.
In 2021, the General Assembly put those goals into House Bill (HB) 951, the Carbon Plan law, but added key guardrails requiring the “least-cost path” to carbon neutrality by 2050 that would “maintain or improve” the reliability of the electrical grid. The new law called for two phases of reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from electricity generation: a 70 percent reduction by around 2030 (from 2005 levels) and “carbon neutrality” by 2050.
A major consequence of the Carbon Plan law is that it will result in the eventual closing of all of North Carolina’s coal-fired electricity generation, over 9,000 megawatts (MW) of baseload power. That’s one-fourth of the installed capacity in the state and one of its least expensive sources of electricity — cheaper than any new power plant regardless of source.
Replacing a baseload source like coal is not simply a matter of “unplugging” one power plant and plugging in another. The replacement must also be capable of performing as a baseload resource. That means it must be capable of reliable, 24/7 power generation to meet the constant underlying demand for power in society (i.e., the baseload). Other than coal, only nuclear — which is recognized in state law as a “clean energy resource” — and natural gas are capable of baseload generation.
Fluctuations above the baseload can be met by dispatchable power sources, whose generation can be adjusted quickly to keep the grid balanced. A critical feature of the electrical grid is that power must be consumed when it is produced. Natural gas and hydroelectric power are capable of dispatchable generation (as is coal).
Because they are entirely dependent upon the weather and even the time of day, wind and solar resources are considered intermittent and not dispatchable — certainly not capable of baseload generation.
A key failure of the Carbon Plan law is that it lacks a requirement to replace baseload power generation with an equal or greater amount of baseload power, commensurate with increased electricity demand as the state continues to grow. Such a requirement is needed to buttress the least-cost and reliable provisions by at least maintaining the proportion of reliable, 24/7 power generation available to North Carolinians. It would also prevent expensive overbuilding of intermittent sources that need redundancy to compensate for their unreliability.
Furthermore, prior to its repeal, the Carbon Plan’s interim goal was unduly influencing the resource modeling by the North Carolina Utilities Commission (NCUC). A report prepared by the NCUC’s Public Staff for legislators in 2025 showed that modeling without the interim goal would save electricity consumers $13 billion. In July 2025, the General Assembly overrode Gov. Josh Stein’s veto of Senate Bill 266, thereby repealing the interim goal.
In August 2025, Duke Energy presented the NCUC with an independent, third-party evaluation showing that offshore wind energy could not be cost-effective relative to other power sources. As a result, Duke said it would not be developing any of the three wind energy areas off the shores of North Carolina.
Key Facts
- Greenhouse gas emissions in North Carolina have been plummeting all century. From 2005, CO2 emissions from electricity generation have fallen by more than half. By 2023, they were down 52 percent.
- Natural gas has become North Carolina’s top source of electricity. In 2023, natural gas produced 40.9 percent of the state’s electricity to nuclear’s 33.5 percent. Coal (11.2 percent) continued to fall. Solar provided only 9.1 percent but edged out hydropower (3.3 percent), wind (0.4 percent), and all other sources (1.5 percent).
- Different sources of electricity generation have greatly differing levels of reliability. This reliability, expressed as capacity value (the portion of a power plant proven to be reliable), ranges dramatically. As measured by Duke Energy, the capacity value for nuclear power is 98 percent, while for coal and natural gas it is 90 percent. Solar (30 percent), onshore wind (15 percent), and offshore wind (30 percent) are at the bottom.
- Maintaining grid reliability and affordable rates regardless of the generation mix is the idea behind a reform called the “Only Pay for What You Get” Act. This legislation, which was introduced in West Virginia in 2025 as the “Ensuring Reliable and Affordable Electricity Act,” would better align utility incentives towards least-cost and reliable electricity provision by linking electricity rates to the proven reliability of power plants. It would base the utility’s recoverable costs of any new generating source it places into service upon its capacity value. Doing so would keep electricity customers from being charged for the proportion of power plants that cannot reliably generate electricity.
- In June 2025, an extreme heat wave threatened the power grid in North Carolina. Duke Energy Carolinas obtained an emergency order from the U.S. Department of Energy to exceed environmental emissions levels if needed to keep the power on. With this order, Duke was able to avoid a blackout. During this emergency, coal power generation increased by about 30 percent and natural gas power by 6 percent. Baseload nuclear was unchanged, while solar production was cut by nearly 20 percent.
- Different electricity generation sources vary widely in cost as well as longevity. Building new power plants is more expensive than maintaining existing ones. The levelized cost of energy from new natural gas plants is $50 per megawatt-hour (MWh), and those plants can last 32 to 40 years. New solar ($90/MWh; 25 to 30 years) and new wind ($89/MWh; 30 years) cost more than other sources of electricity, accounting for their required backup generation. New nuclear ($75/MWh) costs more than new natural gas plants but can be licensed for 80 years. The levelized cost of energy from existing nuclear power plants is a fraction of the cost of new wind and solar.
- Different sources of electricity generation receive dramatically different levels of federal incentives. An August 2023 report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed that wind and solar received far, far more in incentives than other sources from 2016 to Nuclear received only 17 cents per MWh generated, while wind received $3.31 (about 20 times more per MWh than nuclear). Then there’s solar, which got $16.37 per MWh.
- Finally, nuclear and natural gas plants have much, much smaller environmental footprints than wind and solar. To produce 1,000 MW over a year, nuclear requires only one square mile of land; natural gas, 1.8 square miles; solar, 54.2; and wind, 425.9 (onshore).
Recommendations
1. Require that any retiring source of baseload power generation be replaced with an equal or greater amount of new baseload generation, commensurate with increased electricity demand.
Electricity demand will continue to rise in North Carolina not just from population growth, but also from power-hungry data centers. Serving the state’s requirement for least-cost and reliable electricity provision calls for continued access to dependable electricity sources without expensive overbuilding of intermittent sources.
2. Repeal the Carbon Plan or make its carbon neutrality goal aspirational, not mandatory.
North Carolina’s emissions have already fallen by more than half without expensive, disruptive interventions by the state. The most important thing for state electricity provision in North Carolina is ensuring affordable, reliable service at the flip of a switch.
3. Pass an “Only Pay for What You Get” Act.
This reform would incentivize least-cost and reliable generation by allowing utilities to recover only a proportion of the costs of new power plants, coinciding with their capacity value (reliability).
SOURCES: US ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION (NC POWER GENERATION, CAPACITY FACTORS, NC CAPACITY AND USAGE, FEDERAL SUBSIDIES BY SOURCE, EXPECTED LIFESPAN OF COAL PLANTS, AND EMISSIONS), DUKE ENERGY CORPORATION (BASELOAD AND DISPATCHABLE RESOURC- ES, OUTPUT FACTORS AND EFFECTIVE LOAD CARRYING CAPACITY OF INTERMITTENT SOURCES, LIFESPAN OF NATURAL GAS AND HYDROELECTRIC FACILITIES, EMISSIONS FROM REQUIRED BACKUP GENERATION), INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY RESEARCH (LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY BY SOURCE, NEW AND EXISTING), NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (LIFESPAN OF NUCLEAR PLANTS), NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY (LIFESPAN OF SOLAR FACILITIES), AND WIND ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES OFFICE (LIFESPAN OF WIND FACILITIES), BELEWS CREEK STEAM STATION (LAND USE, COAL GENERATION), ASHEVILLE COMBINED CYCLE STATION (LAND USE, NATURAL GAS GENERATION), BRUNSWICK NUCLEAR PLANT (LAND USE, NUCLEAR GENERATION), COWANS FORD HYDROELECTRIC STATION (LAND USE, HYDROPOWER GENERATION), WARSAW FARM (LAND USE, SOLAR GENERATION), DESERT WIND FARM (LAND USE, ONSHORE WIND GENERATION), AND AUTHOR’S CALCULATIONS.
NOTE: SUBSIDIES PER BILLION BTUS FOR NATURAL GAS ALSO INCLUDES SUBSIDIES FOR PETROLEUM LIQUIDS * BACKUP GENERATION NOTE
