And that is if there are NO conservation efforts which there will be.  Bad news for the Church of the Environmentalist.

VIENNA,
Austria – The world has tapped only 18 percent of the total global
supply of crude, a leading Saudi oil executive said Wednesday,
challenging the notion that supplies are petering out.

    
Abdallah S. Jum?ah, president and CEO of the state-owned Saudi Arabian
Oil Co., known better as Aramco, said the world has the potential of
4.5 trillion barrels in reserves – enough to power the globe at current
levels of consumption for another 140 years.

Again,
we should recognize that technology continues to find better, more
efficient ways to extract petroleum reserves and better, more efficient
ways to use it. Those advances have a great deal more to do with the
market than regulations forcing change.  One would think all of
that efficiency would be hailed by the evangelists of the environmental
movement, but as it stands, ALL news is always BAD news.

Also
important, there is actually a DEBATE about the amount of oil and that
debate means that facts will ultimately guide future policies on oil
(or at least there’s hope).  Whereas debate is largely held at bay by the Inquisitors of the Church of Global Warming (a branch of the Church of the Environmentalist).