We?ve posted a link over at Carolina Journal Online about the Gallup poll taken last week that shows Bush-Cheney leading Kerry-Edwards by four points after the Democratic convention. It?s legitimate news, people are talking about it, and by all means folks should check it out.
However, I?d recommend caution in interpreting the Gallup finding as suggesting the perverse result that Bush-Cheney actually got a ?bounce? from the Democratic convention. Surely Dems have to be disappointed that the weeklong informercial gained them little ground in the various polls, but they won?t believe the Gallup finding of a four-point Republican lead. Neither do I. Gallup has a history of wildly gyrating numbers on presidential races, showing much more volatility that other polls. I presume it has something to do with its sampling and weighting procedures. If the Gallup numbers wander back towards a Kerry lead in the coming days or weeks, that won?t necessarily mean anything, either, though I?m sure lots of folks will invent elaborate news-cycle explanations for it.
