David Catron of the American Spectator probes the potential electoral impact of last week’s raid on former President Donald Trump’s Florida home.

For most of 2022, Democratic voters have been far more ambivalent about participating in the fall midterms than their Republican counterparts. According to conventional Beltway wisdom, however, that enthusiasm gap has been narrowed by the recent Roe v. Wade ruling and the Jan. 6 hearings. It’s probable, though, that last Monday’s FBI raid on former President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate will reestablish the Republican advantage. This unprecedented action will likely energize GOP voters and drown any increase in Democratic enthusiasm beneath a red tsunami.

The first poll to measure public response to the raid indicates that it has galvanized Republicans and Independents. A new survey conducted by the Trafalgar Group for Convention of States Action found that 83.3 percent of GOP voters and 71.7 percent of Independent voters are more motivated to vote in the midterms than they were before the FBI descended on Mar-a-Lago. Moreover, when asked who they believed was behind the FBI action, 76.7 percent of Republicans answered, “Trump’s political enemies,” and 53.9 percent of Independents agreed. A mere 11.9 percent of Democrats said that the search was politically motivated.

The survey also breaks down responses by ethnicity in the crosstabs, and the news isn’t good for Democrats. The share of Hispanics who said the Mar-a-Lago raid increased their motivation to vote in the midterms was a whopping 80 percent, while 69.9 percent said it was initiated by Trump’s political enemies. This suggests that this episode may well accelerate the increasing tendency of Hispanics to vote Republican. Their exodus from the Democratic Party began in earnest during the last election and it isn’t limited to any geographic location. …

… It’s likely that many of these voters agree with Rep. Mayra Flores (R-Texas) who responded to the Mar-a-Lago search thus: “The FBI raid on the residence of the former POTUS is unprecedented. We do not live in a third world country.”