by Mitch Kokai
Senior Political Analyst, John Locke Foundation
The news keeps getting worse for Democrats as their midterm prospects continue to dim.
The Republican Party is united, excited, and out for blood. Democrats are in disarray — ambivalent about their party leader, unable to find a winning issue, and anticipating defeat.
The Rassmussen generic congressional ballot of Republicans versus Democrats for the midterm election shows Republicans winning 50-39 percent. The February Rassmussen generic congressional ballot had the GOP up 50-37 percent.
The two-point bump in support of Democrats is insignificant when you consider that the GOP is winning in most age groups and most income groups. And the GOP is clobbering the Democrats among independent voters.
“The 11-point edge for Republicans in the latest poll is larger than Democrats enjoyed at any time during the 2018 midterm campaign, due both to greater GOP partisan intensity and a 19-point advantage among independents. While 94% of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, only 82% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 46% would vote Republican and 27% would vote Democrat, while 13% would vote for some other candidate and 14% are undecided.
“Fifty-four percent (54%) of whites, 28% of black voters and 48% of other minorities would vote Republican if the election were held today. Sixty-two percent (62%) of black voters, 36% of whites and 35% of other minorities would vote Democrat.” …
… The usual caveats apply. We’re still nearly eight months from the election. The war in Ukraine could prove to be a game-changer if Biden is stupid enough to go to war against another nuclear power. And the national media will pull out all the stops to prevent a big GOP win.
But they won’t be able to stop it. It won’t be possible to hide the inflation, the shortages, or the spike in energy prices.