Editors at National Review Online consider a major challenge facing top Republicans in Congress.
It was always going to be important to pass the big, beautiful bill, but it matters more than ever now that Trump has unilaterally raised taxes via his sweeping tariffs. If the bill fails and the 2017 tax cuts aren’t extended, it will be another large-scale tax increase on an economy already buffeted by Trump’s trade wars. This would be an economic and political debacle that would presumably bring Democrats, currently at a low ebb, roaring back in 2026.
So, there should be an emphasis on party unity. With the Republican margin in the House so slim, and with so many contested issues packed into one vehicle, though, it’s inevitable that a variety of GOP factions have been threatening to withhold their support and unravel the whole thing. In legislative terms, Speaker Johnson is trying to win a game of Jenga while balancing on one leg on the top rail of the Speaker’s Balcony.
If none of this is easy, there are obvious pitfalls Republicans should be avoiding. Raising taxes on high-end earners must remain a nonstarter. This would be bad policy in the best of circumstances, but, as noted above, Trump’s arbitrary taxes on imports have already disrupted the economy. …
… Republicans also need to be willing to say “no” to the moderates in the caucus. They are wrong on the substance — opposing any meaningful restraint on the growth of Medicaid, maintaining funding for Planned Parenthood, seeking as large a SALT deduction as they can get — while, at the same time, they are more vulnerable than their colleagues to the political fallout from a failed bill. It’s not the fiscal hawks, generally from safe seats, who are going to be the first to lose if the party immolates itself in this effort, but the moderates in marginal districts. …
… Finally, good policy should matter.
