Wonder if our esteemed leaders on the state and local level are starting to understand that unless they make it simple for businesses to buy, sell, grow, expand, hire — you know, actual business stuff — it will not happen.
Or it will just happen someplace else.
Update: On cue, a demand not to believe your lying eyes. I don’t know a thing about Dennis Stearns, but the UPoR evidently likes his no-double dip mantra. Clip-n-save:
Stearns Financial’s updated scenario models suggest that the highest probability of over 60 percent is slow, but sustainable, growth of over 2.5 percent in the last half of 2010. Our downside model cools this off to only 1.5 percent growth with a 15 percent probability and less than a 10 percent chance of a true recession.
The bottom line is, a double-dip recession is an interesting topic for media discussion, but currently is not a high threat.
Notice nothing about employment. Companies will continue to squeeze as much productivity out of their current workforce as possible for as long as possible. There are just too many unknowns about the long-term cost of hiring to do otherwise. Low inventories? Compared to what? Worst case, you bring on a raft of temp workers to close up any gap. The last thing you do is expand your business, even assuming you are seeing real top-line revenue growth.
Besides, if things are picking up steam, why did June retail sales fall 0.5 percent? That is more than double consensus expectations.
