An insightful piece in National Journal discusses redistricting implications of the 2010 election cycle. Even if public sentiment is against Republicans in ’12, the party’s control of redistricting in key states ? North Carolina being one ? lessens the probability of it being a bloodbath.
Reports the Journal:
The GOP?s massive gains in state legislatures mean they enter 2012 with as big an advantage in drawing districts as they?ve ever had. Many vulnerable Republicans will find themselves running in more favorable districts, while the party can expect to benefit from newly-created districts designed to their advantage.
Republicans fully control redistricting in 15 states, including the battlegrounds of Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. They control the mapmaking for 193 House districts, compared to 44 for the Democrats.
The implications are significant for 2012. Take North Carolina, for example. It was a rare bright spot for House Democrats, who hung on to three of four contested seats despite the wipeout against the party in the South. Democrats still hold a 7-6 majority in the congressional delegation, thanks to a gerrymandered map drawn by state Democrats for generations.
That?s likely to change with Republicans winning control of the legislature for the first time in history. Reps. Mike McIntyre and Larry Kissell could easily find their careers in peril, if the new lines exclude African-American constituencies from their districts that have been crucial to their political successes.
It’s improbable that North Carolina will gain a 14th congressional seat due to population growth. If we do, though, the Republicans would control how the lines are drawn.
That brings up another issue: How will a Democrat-controlled U.S. Justice Department respond to a Republican legislature’s redistricting map in light of the Civil Rights Act? The biggest legal challenges could come at the federal level.
