In a recent NBER study, James Heckman and Paul LaFontaine took a fresh look at high school graduation rates, using various longitudinal data sources (and improved methodology) to recalculate the rate.

They found,

(A) The true high school graduation rate is substantially lower than the official rate issued by the National Center for Educational Statistics.

The actual high school graduation rate is substantially lower than the 88 percent estimate of the status completion rate issued by the NCES.

(B) It has been declining over the past 40 years.

The U.S. high school graduation rate peaked at around 80 percent in the late 1960s and then declined by 4-5 percentage points.

(C) Majority/minority graduation rate differentials are substantial and have not converged over the past 35 years.

About 65 percent of blacks and Hispanics leave school with a high school diploma and minority graduation rates are still substantially below the rates for non-Hispanic whites.

(D) The decline in high school graduation rates occurs among native populations and is not solely a consequence of increasing proportions of immigrants and minorities in American society.