Blah BlahBlahBlah
OK, we hit another weird area where I question my sanity. How is it the Uptown crowd has been on overdrive touting UNCC economist John Connaughton’s latest forecast when Connaughton explicitly says that unemployment is only going to increase in the coming months?
Worse, I’ve seen absolutely nothing on what kind of inflation assumptions Connaughton makes for 2010. He says that economic growth in the state could hit 4 percent next year. Awesome. But with what inflation rate? Four, 5, 8, 10 percent? That is the difference between growth and an illusion.
Then we have the peculiar case of Mecklenburg County government saying that sales tax revenue that was supposed to hit $202m. for the year is just fine running slightly ahead of a revised $180m. projection. How slightly?
December’s sales tax number was a few hundred grand higher than expected. December. The month with the crazy sales as retailers chopped off limbs to stay afloat a little longer. Not exactly the kinda trend I want to bet the rent money upon.
Finally, housing. A slight uptick in the national housing starts number, doubtless in response to the new federal tax subsidy for home buyers, has been met with unrestrained glee. But again, you can only consume as much housing as your income permits, provided you have an income. Which gets us back to future unemployment. Is this all so very hard to understand?
Maybe if you don’t believe me you might listen to…Hitler.
