James Antle of the Washington Examiner asks whether Vice President Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign already has hit its high point.
The presidential election may turn on whether Vice President Kamala Harris is closer to her peak or her rise has only just begun.
By Monday night, Harris inched ahead of former President Donald Trump in the two-way national Real Clear Politics polling average for the first time. She has a somewhat larger lead in FiveThirtyEight’s average, though it is still small, about the size of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 popular vote margin, which did not translate into an Electoral College majority or the presidency.
Democrats hope this is a trend, whereby Harris rides a wave of favorable press coverage to an enduring lead, finally overtaking Trump. Republicans are hopeful that this is what Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio called the “Harris Honeymoon,” a temporary sugar high.
There are external events that could nudge the race in either direction. Harris is about to announce her running mate. Democrats will soon gather for their convention in Chicago. Then Trump will be sentenced in the New York hush money case in September.
At the same time, there are economic warning signs that could put the focus back on an issue where Trump still leads. There could be more war in the Middle East, further undercutting President Joe Biden’s promise to restore normalcy after a turbulent Trump term. A recent Wall Street Journal poll found that 51% approve of Trump’s time in the White House in retrospect. There are also new questions about what the border problems of most of the last four years mean for the risk of terrorism.
There are two ways to look at the race. One is that after weeks of euphoric coverage and renewed Democratic energy, Harris has effectively settled into a tie before Trump is done defining her for battleground state voters. The other is that Harris has managed to do in a little over two weeks what Biden was unable to do in months and the honeymoon could last long enough to see her through the election.
