Writing in today’s News & Observer, NCSU political science professor Steve Greene argues that failing to pass health care reform would have hurt Democrats more in the midterms than passing it. He says the health care vote “will have little, if anything” to do with Democratic loses in November.
He writes:
Historically, party success in congressional elections follows a regular pattern of “surge and decline.” When one party wins a presidential election, it is generally because of the “surge”; the party was more successful in motivating voters who might have otherwise stayed home. Thus, the party of the winning president is able to pick up seats it might not otherwise have won. Two years later, without the presidential standard-bearer at the top of the ticket, we see the “decline”; the party’s voters tend to stay home in disproportionate numbers and the party loses many of the seats it was lucky to gain in the first place.
SNIP
An understanding of the way the news media cover both legislation and elections likewise suggests that health care, in particular, should not do substantial damage to Democratic candidates. Had Democrats failed to pass health reform despite their efforts, their prospects would have looked much worse. Pollsters from both sides of the political aisle concluded in 1994 that Democrats’ electoral disaster stemmed not from trying to pass health care reform, but from trying and failing.
Failure, not surprisingly, brings with it extensive negative coverage. Success, in contrast, dramatically changes the dynamics of how the issue is portrayed in newspapers and on news broadcasts.
The economy will be the No. 1 concern for voters this fall, obviously, but I think the health care vote will also do much to turn out conservative and Republican voters. As Greene points out, one key to midterm elections is voter motivation. The health care overhaul has upset a significant portion of the country ? probably even a majority ? and angry voters are more likely to storm the polls than voters happy with the health care legislation.
So, while health care might not have the same impact as the economy, I see it having more than Greene predicts because of its let’s-throw-the-bums-out factor.
