Take a look at the numbers the UPoR has been using to track the property reval sausage in Mecklenburg County. See anything funny?
Since the 2003 reval the county was banking on steady 2.5 to almost 5 percent annual growth in the total valuation of property in the county. The in 2010 is slams to a scant 0.41 percent uptick to rest at $100.3b. Then comes the reval, and wham another $10b. in value is found for a post-reval number of $110b.
That 10 percent increase is the windfall a portion of which county staff (and CMS) intends to “capture” in Jennifer Roberts’ immortal phrase. How much?
Well the UPoR has helpfully suggested — probably via the UNC School of Government and associated Raleigh gnomes — that 2.67% of that increase — reflective of the average valuation growth 03-10 — would be a good place to start — for a $22m. property tax increase. We already know the Dems on the board would like double that about $45m. — roughly half of the $90m. or so that would be generated by leaving the property tax rate unchanged.
However, that 2.67% number is greatly inflated by the Ponzi scheme, hot check boom years of mid-decade. A growth rate more in line with reality would be measured in basis points, perhaps 100 tops. In other words, large chunks of MeckCo officialdom is still having trouble grasping what the county’s own budget director said lo these many months ago: “We cannot afford the government we have.”
Reality-based budgeting would begin with $850m. as the ceiling on Mecklenburg County property tax collections for the foreseeable future. And even that builds in tremendous waste and fraud in the sprawling county DSS operation, so lately removed from paying taxicab companies $5m. a year to ferry a few dozen welfare recipients around town.
