I’ve often been amazed that we believe climate change alarmism when we can barely predict weather at 5-days (much less over a century). I’m also amazed when we can’t even predict hurricane seasons over one oceanic area.
In December of last year, Colorado State University predicted that 2007 would have 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes. This was to be another high-activity year for the Atlantic.
The reality has been quite different.
The North Atlantic hurricane season is currently nearly 30% below normal in terms of a well-known activity metric called ACE. While the number of named storms is above normal, their integrated intensity has not matched the hyper-active expectations of many seasonal forecasters (e.g. NOAA 140-200% above median). The Eastern Pacific off the western coast of Mexico is also experiencing record inactivity.
I’m still waiting for the joy from alarmists being happy that it wasn’t bad. And the National Hurricane Center has this to say about Global Warming:
. . there is no reliable data available to indicate increased hurricane frequency or intensity in any of the globe’s seven tropical cyclone basins. Meteorologists who study tropical cyclones have no valid physical theory as to why hurricane frequency or intensity would necessarily be altered significantly by small amounts (<1 degree C) of global mean temperature change.
Science without politics.
